Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
