A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
